Statistical knowledge || Misinterpretation of tourism statistics

Scientific and accurate tourism statistics are the basis for tourism decision-making and a management tool. Recently, there have been voices questioning the accuracy of tourism statistics, and some even believe that tourism statistics are "distorted" and "inflated". To explore this issue, we need a scientific attitude and a peaceful state of mind. The "threshold" for tourism is not high, but the "threshold" for tourism statistics is not low. Many issues involved in tourism statistics are global problems, and at the same time, they are not all that tourism statistics can carry and solve. A pair of questions about misunderstandings of tourism statistics (I) Scientific cognition of the quality of tourism statistics When it comes to "distortion", what is "true"? This involves the scientific cognition of the quality of statistical data. There are certain differences in the interpretation and understanding of the meaning of statistical data quality among statistical agencies and relevant international organizations in various countries around the world, but they have all determined their own different data quality standards based on their own statistical practices and understanding of the meaning of data quality. For example, the quality standards of British government statistics are accuracy, timeliness, effectiveness, and objectivity; the US Bureau of National Economic Analysis requires the quality standards of comparability, accuracy, and applicability; the quality standards of the International Monetary Fund Statistics Bureau are accuracy, applicability, availability, and method professionalism. These standards are important contents and bases for government statistical agencies in various countries to conduct quality inspection and supervision of data. In my country, many scholars have proposed statistical data quality standards suitable for my country's national conditions, mainly including applicability, accuracy, timeliness, comparability, connectivity, availability, interpretability, and coherence. In addition, some scholars have comprehensively measured the quality of statistical data from three aspects: the content quality, expression quality, and constraint standards of statistical data, providing new ideas for measuring the quality of statistical data. In April 2002, my country officially joined the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which means that my country's statistical data collection, quality assessment, and release must converge with international standards. As an authoritative international standard and a widely applicable operational standard, the IMF's Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF) has established five aspects for assessing the quality of statistical data: ensuring integrity, methodological soundness, accuracy and reliability, applicability and availability. Therefore, the scientific understanding of the quality of tourism statistical data, that is, what is "true"? It depends on the measurement standard. This standard is also not imagined by anyone, but it must correspond to and compare its indicator definition, that is, how is this indicator defined? Including its statistical scope, statistical methods, evaluation standards, etc. From the perspective of our country's tourism statistics, it is to follow and implement in accordance with the "Statistical Law of the People's Republic of China", "Tourism Statistics Management Measures" and "Tourism Statistics Survey System". Both "Management Measures" and "Systems" are formulated in accordance with the above five quality principles of accuracy, reliability, applicability and availability. (II) National and local tourism statistics at different levels of travel and reception There are rumors that the total number of tourists in each province is several times the national data, and the total number of domestic tourists in each province is several billion more than the national data. National and local are two different levels of statistics. The national level is statistics from the perspective of travel, that is, no matter how many days a tourist's travel activity lasts or how many regions he visits, it is only counted as one person. Therefore, there is no duplication in the total number of tourists at the national level. The local level is statistics from the perspective of reception. There are duplications in tourism statistical data between regions at the same level (for example, at the same provincial, regional and municipal level). Under the premise of general standardized statistics, such duplication is allowed. For example, a domestic tourist X visited provinces A and B successively. At the national level, tourist X was only counted as one person, and he was counted as one person in provinces A and B respectively. Because provinces A and B did receive tourist X, there is no problem with him being counted in the number of tourists in provinces A and B respectively, which reflects the actual reception scale and workload of the local government. However, adding the number of tourists received by provinces A and B is meaningless and cannot explain anything. Furthermore, if tourist X visits two prefecture-level cities, A1 and A2, in province A, he is counted as one person in each of the two cities, because both cities A1 and A2 have received tourist X, so there is no problem in counting him in the number of tourists in cities A1 and A2, which reflects the actual reception scale and workload of prefecture-level cities. However, when conducting statistics at the level of province A, tourist X can only be counted as one person, not 1+1=2 people, so this link needs to be "de-duplicated". According to the author's understanding, some provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities do "de-duplicate", but the author does not know all provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities. Therefore, there may be problems in this link and the links below it. Going further, as for the most basic industry management level - districts and counties, they may have tourism-specific industries such as scenic spots, accommodation units, and travel agencies. Taking the number of tourists received as an example, if the data between business formats are directly added up, duplication will also occur, that is, there may be complete or partial duplication between business formats. In particular, the data of travel agencies are completely duplicated data because they are already included in the business formats of scenic spots, accommodation units, etc. (III) Misunderstanding of the scope of tourism purpose and the definition of tourists Under the definition framework of the World Tourism Organization, "domestic one-day tourists" in my country's tourism statistics are the type of tourists with the shortest travel time, that is, they leave their usual environment for 6 hours and more than 10 kilometers. However, the usual environment is not the same as home. Although people often leave their homes for 6 hours and more than 10 kilometers to go to work, for ordinary office workers, the workplace is also their usual environment, that is, a person may have more than one usual environment in his life. Of course, commuting is not a tourist behavior and will not be counted in the number of tourists. In addition, there is the perception of the purpose of tourism. People usually think that tourism refers to the behavior for the purpose of sightseeing, leisure and vacation. However, the World Tourism Organization's "International Recommendations on Tourism Statistics (2008)" divides the purpose of tourists' travel into two categories: private purpose and business purpose. Among the private purposes, there are 8 categories: vacation, leisure and entertainment, visiting relatives and friends, education and training, health and medical treatment, religion or pilgrimage, shopping, transit, and others. Countries often classify their tourism industry according to their own actual conditions. For example, Canada has three types of purposes: leisure, business, and others. my country's Tourism Statistics Survey System defines that tourists are not only for sightseeing, leisure vacation, visiting relatives and friends, religious worship, shopping, but also for business, conferences, cultural and sports exchanges, medical care and other purposes. Therefore, tourism statistics include not only tourists for the purpose of "playing", but also tourists for business purposes. (IV) Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan compatriots and inbound tourism statistics The inclusion of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan compatriots in inbound tourism is also a questionable aspect. Taking 2019 as an example [1], my country had 145 million inbound tourists, of which only 31.88 million were foreigners, accounting for about 22%; 78% of the inbound tourists were Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan compatriots. Judging from the data of inbound overnight tourists, my country received 65.73 million inbound overnight tourists in 2019, accounting for about 45% of the total, that is, the majority of inbound tourists on one-day tours, reaching 55%; and among the overnight tourists, foreigners accounted for 24.93 million, accounting for about 38%, and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan compatriots accounted for the majority, reaching 62%. Overall, foreigners who stayed overnight only accounted for 17% of the total inbound tourists in my country. Therefore, if we narrowly equate inbound tourism in my country with foreigners' tourism to China, there will indeed be a data gap. However, trade between Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and mainland China is international trade. The distinction between domestic trade and international trade is based on the customs border, not the national border. Although Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan are all territories of the People's Republic of China, they have their own independent customs areas. Inbound tourism is part of international trade in services, and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan compatriots visiting the mainland are an important part of inbound tourism in my country. my country's inbound tourism statistics refer to the standards of the World Tourism Organization. Due to special historical reasons, the flow of people between the mainland and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan needs to pass through ports, which belongs to the travel between different customs areas. The United Nations and the World Tourism Organization also recognize this statistical caliber, so this kind of tourism flow is also counted as international tourism. When the relevant management departments of the Chinese government release inbound tourism data, they classify and publish inbound tourism of compatriots from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan and foreigners. II. Countermeasures Research (I) Strengthen the research on basic tourism theory The above misunderstandings may mainly stem from the understanding deviation of basic concepts related to tourism and the disagreement on some definitions. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the research on basic tourism theory, especially in terms of operability and measurability. (II) Attach importance to tourism statistics and talent team building Talent is the fundamental guarantee of quality, and this is also true for tourism statistics. The gap in the quality of local tourism statistics is actually a talent gap. In order to improve the quality of local data, we should strengthen tourism statistics training, popular science, and "blindness" elimination, especially for local leaders, and increase their attention, so as to improve the guarantee of statistics in terms of personnel, finance and materials, rather than just thinking of statistics when data support is needed. (III) Further improve the Tourism Statistics Survey System. Relevant research shows that the Tourism Statistics Survey System plays an obvious role in ensuring the quality of local tourism statistics. In the future, when revising the Tourism Statistics Survey System, we should try our best to take into account the operational guidance of local tourism statistics.Scientific and accurate tourism statistics are the basis for tourism decision-making and a management tool. Recently, there have been voices questioning the accuracy of tourism statistics, and some even believe that tourism statistics are "distorted" and "inflated". To explore this issue, we need a scientific attitude and a peaceful state of mind. The "threshold" for tourism is not high, but the "threshold" for tourism statistics is not low. Many issues involved in tourism statistics are global problems, and at the same time, they are not all that tourism statistics can carry and solve. A pair of questions about misunderstandings of tourism statistics (I) Scientific cognition of the quality of tourism statistics When it comes to "distortion", what is "true"? This involves the scientific cognition of the quality of statistical data. There are certain differences in the interpretation and understanding of the meaning of statistical data quality among statistical agencies and relevant international organizations in various countries around the world, but they have all determined their own different data quality standards based on their own statistical practices and understanding of the meaning of data quality. For example, the quality standards of British government statistics are accuracy, timeliness, effectiveness, and objectivity; the US Bureau of National Economic Analysis requires the quality standards of comparability, accuracy, and applicability; the quality standards of the International Monetary Fund Statistics Bureau are accuracy, applicability, availability, and method professionalism. These standards are important contents and bases for government statistical agencies in various countries to conduct quality inspection and supervision of data. In my country, many scholars have proposed statistical data quality standards suitable for my country's national conditions, mainly including applicability, accuracy, timeliness, comparability, connectivity, availability, interpretability, and coherence. In addition, some scholars have comprehensively measured the quality of statistical data from three aspects: the content quality, expression quality, and constraint standards of statistical data, providing new ideas for measuring the quality of statistical data. In April 2002, my country officially joined the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which means that my country's statistical data collection, quality assessment, and release must converge with international standards. As an authoritative international standard and a widely applicable operational standard, the IMF's Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF) has established five aspects for assessing the quality of statistical data: ensuring integrity, methodological soundness, accuracy and reliability, applicability and availability. Therefore, the scientific understanding of the quality of tourism statistical data, that is, what is "true"? It depends on the measurement standard. This standard is also not imagined by anyone, but it must correspond to and compare its indicator definition, that is, how is this indicator defined? Including its statistical scope, statistical methods, evaluation standards, etc. From the perspective of our country's tourism statistics, it is to follow and implement in accordance with the "Statistical Law of the People's Republic of China", "Tourism Statistics Management Measures" and "Tourism Statistics Survey System". Both "Management Measures" and "Systems" are formulated in accordance with the above five quality principles of accuracy, reliability, applicability and availability. (II) National and local tourism statistics at different levels of travel and reception There are rumors that the total number of tourists in each province is several times the national data, and the total number of domestic tourists in each province is several billion more than the national data. National and local are two different levels of statistics. The national level is statistics from the perspective of travel, that is, no matter how many days a tourist's travel activity lasts or how many regions he visits, it is only counted as one person. Therefore, there is no duplication in the total number of tourists at the national level. The local level is statistics from the perspective of reception. There are duplications in tourism statistical data between regions at the same level (for example, at the same provincial, regional and municipal level). Under the premise of general standardized statistics, such duplication is allowed. For example, a domestic tourist X visited provinces A and B successively. At the national level, tourist X was only counted as one person, and he was counted as one person in provinces A and B respectively. Because provinces A and B did receive tourist X, there is no problem with him being counted in the number of tourists in provinces A and B respectively, which reflects the actual reception scale and workload of the local government. However, adding the number of tourists received by provinces A and B is meaningless and cannot explain anything. Furthermore, if tourist X visits two prefecture-level cities, A1 and A2, in province A, he is counted as one person in each of the two cities, because both cities A1 and A2 have received tourist X, so there is no problem in counting him in the number of tourists in cities A1 and A2, which reflects the actual reception scale and workload of prefecture-level cities. However, when conducting statistics at the level of province A, tourist X can only be counted as one person, not 1+1=2 people, so this link needs to be "de-duplicated". According to the author's understanding, some provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities do "de-duplicate", but the author does not know all provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities. Therefore, there may be problems in this link and the links below it. Going further, as for the most basic industry management level - districts and counties, they may have tourism-specific industries such as scenic spots, accommodation units, and travel agencies. Taking the number of tourists received as an example, if the data between business formats are directly added up, duplication will also occur, that is, there may be complete or partial duplication between business formats. In particular, the data of travel agencies are completely duplicated data because they are already included in the business formats of scenic spots, accommodation units, etc. (III) Misunderstanding of the scope of tourism purpose and the definition of tourists Under the definition framework of the World Tourism Organization, "domestic one-day tourists" in my country's tourism statistics are the type of tourists with the shortest travel time, that is, they leave their usual environment for 6 hours and more than 10 kilometers. However, the usual environment is not the same as home. Although people often leave their homes for 6 hours and more than 10 kilometers to go to work, for ordinary office workers, the workplace is also their usual environment, that is, a person may have more than one usual environment in his life. Of course, commuting is not a tourist behavior and will not be counted in the number of tourists. In addition, there is the perception of the purpose of tourism. People usually think that tourism refers to the behavior for the purpose of sightseeing, leisure and vacation. However, the World Tourism Organization's "International Recommendations on Tourism Statistics (2008)" divides the purpose of tourists' travel into two categories: private purpose and business purpose. Among the private purposes, there are 8 categories: vacation, leisure and entertainment, visiting relatives and friends, education and training, health and medical treatment, religion or pilgrimage, shopping, transit, and others. Countries often classify their tourism industry according to their own actual conditions. For example, Canada has three types of purposes: leisure, business, and others. my country's Tourism Statistics Survey System defines that tourists are not only for sightseeing, leisure vacation, visiting relatives and friends, religious worship, shopping, but also for business, conferences, cultural and sports exchanges, medical care and other purposes. Therefore, tourism statistics include not only tourists for the purpose of "playing", but also tourists for business purposes. (IV) Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan compatriots and inbound tourism statistics The inclusion of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan compatriots in inbound tourism is also a questionable aspect. Taking 2019 as an example [1], my country had 145 million inbound tourists, of which only 31.88 million were foreigners, accounting for about 22%; 78% of the inbound tourists were Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan compatriots. Judging from the data of inbound overnight tourists, my country received 65.73 million inbound overnight tourists in 2019, accounting for about 45% of the total, that is, the majority of inbound tourists on one-day tours, reaching 55%; and among the overnight tourists, foreigners accounted for 24.93 million, accounting for about 38%, and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan compatriots accounted for the majority, reaching 62%. Overall, foreigners who stayed overnight only accounted for 17% of the total inbound tourists in my country. Therefore, if we narrowly equate inbound tourism in my country with foreigners' tourism to China, there will indeed be a data gap. However, trade between Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and mainland China is international trade. The distinction between domestic trade and international trade is based on the customs border, not the national border. Although Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan are all territories of the People's Republic of China, they have their own independent customs areas. Inbound tourism is part of international trade in services, and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan compatriots visiting the mainland are an important part of inbound tourism in my country. my country's inbound tourism statistics refer to the standards of the World Tourism Organization. Due to special historical reasons, the flow of people between the mainland and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan needs to pass through ports, which belongs to the travel between different customs areas. The United Nations and the World Tourism Organization also recognize this statistical caliber, so this kind of tourism flow is also counted as international tourism. When the relevant management departments of the Chinese government release inbound tourism data, they classify and publish inbound tourism of compatriots from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan and foreigners. II. Countermeasures Research (I) Strengthen the research on basic tourism theory The above misunderstandings may mainly stem from the understanding deviation of basic concepts related to tourism and the disagreement on some definitions. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the research on basic tourism theory, especially in terms of operability and measurability. (II) Attach importance to tourism statistics and talent team building Talent is the fundamental guarantee of quality, and this is also true for tourism statistics. The gap in the quality of local tourism statistics is actually a talent gap. In order to improve the quality of local data, we should strengthen tourism statistics training, popular science, and "blindness" elimination, especially for local leaders, and increase their attention, so as to improve the guarantee of statistics in terms of personnel, finance and materials, rather than just thinking of statistics when data support is needed. (III) Further improve the Tourism Statistics Survey System. Relevant research shows that the Tourism Statistics Survey System plays an obvious role in ensuring the quality of local tourism statistics. In the future, when revising the Tourism Statistics Survey System, we should try our best to take into account the operational guidance of local tourism statistics.

【1】The data comes from the “Basic Situation of Tourism Market in 2019” released on the official website of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism on March 10, 2020.